The Absolute Effect / Oncology Evidence / Evidence Index

Melanoma · Medical · Advanced / Metastatic · First-line unresectable stage III/IV melanoma

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In previously untreated advanced melanoma, how do nivolumab-ipilimumab and nivolumab compare with ipilimumab for long-term survival?

Registry: NCT01844505 · Evidence reviewed 9 November 2026 · Aliases and follow-up publications consolidated.

Phase III double-blind randomized; n=945, three arms.Primary-source evidence summary

Study design, population and eligibility

Design and sample

Phase III double-blind randomized; n=945, three arms.

Population

Previously untreated unresectable stage III/IV melanoma.

Treatment and comparator

Intervention: Nivolumab + ipilimumab induction then nivolumab; separate nivolumab arm.

Comparator: Ipilimumab monotherapy.

Endpoints

PFS and OS primary comparisons vs ipilimumab.

Key efficacy and clinical outcomes

At ≥10-y follow-up median OS 71.9 mo combo, 36.9 mo nivolumab, 19.9 mo ipilimumab; HR vs ipilimumab 0.53 and 0.63.

Source-reported outcome visualization

Values are reproduced from the cited report; bars are scaled within this figure. First-line unresectable stage III/IV melanoma

Median OS nivo/ipi
71.9%
Median OS nivolumab
36.9%
Median OS ipilimumab
19.9%

Median survival and hazard ratios are not fixed-time event risks; NNT is not inferred from them.

Toxicity and treatment burden

Combination has substantially higher grade 3–4 immune toxicity than nivolumab alone.

Absolute effect and NNT/NNH

Not powered for formal head-to-head combo vs nivolumab comparison.

NNT/NNH is not calculated unless a directly reported, comparable fixed-time risk difference supports it. Median survival and hazard ratios alone do not provide an NNT.

Critical interpretation and limitations

Not powered for formal head-to-head combo vs nivolumab comparison.

This page is an evidence summary, not a substitute for multidisciplinary assessment or patient-specific decision-making.

Current-practice context

Review date: 9 November 2026. Primary publication and selected follow-up sources were reviewed. Full disease-specific guideline, regulatory-label and sequencing audit remains pending; verify current local recommendations and biomarker eligibility before clinical application.

Primary publication and authoritative source

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39282897/

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01844505